Economic Research
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Jeffrey Anderson

Senior Director for European Affairs
Europe

Bio

Jeffrey Anderson has been with the IIF since 1984. He is Senior Director for European Affairs, focusing on key issues arising from the Eurozone crisis.

Mr. Anderson was Director of the Institute’s European Department from 1992 to 2012, where he followed the economic progress of central and eastern Europe, as well as Russia and Turkey, and led the expansion of the Institute’s country coverage to the Eurozone periphery. Before that, Mr. Anderson was Director of the Comparative Country Analysis Department and senior economist in the Institute’s Asia Department. Prior to joining the Institute, Mr. Anderson was part of the World Economic Service at Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates.

Education

Mr. Anderson received an MA in International Studies from the Johns Hopkins University School for Advanced International Studies in 1983.

Publications

  • Slovenia: Next in Line?
    April 08, 2013

    Banking issues differ greatly from Cyprus, with Slovenian bank assets only one-third the EU average of 3.5 times GDP. The largest banks are state-owned, however, with mounting losses, accelerated increases in NPLs and liquidity pressures driven by steady repayments to foreign lenders since 2008. Falling GDP now presents a main challenge, along with the need to issue bonds soon. Reaffirmed by the new government, policies in place should leave Slovenia well placed to be granted precautionary access to ESM bond buying.

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  • Ireland and Greece: A Tale of Two Fiscal Adjustments
    March 13, 2013

    Three years into Europe’s crisis, and with output falling in Italy, Spain and Portugal, the different experiences of Ireland and Greece are instructive. More tempered fiscal consolidation has helped Ireland restart growth and bond issuance, while harsher adjustment in Greece has contributed to a sharp reduction in GDP, elevating debt ratios and reinforcing doubts about creditworthiness.

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  • Italy’s Election Argues for a European Response
    March 01, 2013

    Inconclusive elections make further structural reforms difficult, raising doubts about OMT eligibility, which has been widely assumed. To keep output weakness from further eroding popular backing for reforms and ratcheting up the debt/GDP ratio, Europe will need to find ways to give greater priority to growth.

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  • Italy: Inconclusive Election Intensifies Uncertainty
    February 26, 2013

    Only a slight margin in the popular vote for the center-left gave it a lower house majority but left the Senate hung. The inconclusive result leaves new elections difficult to avoid and adds to uncertainties that will reinforce output contraction and sustain upward pressures on the debt/GDP ratio.

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  • Italy: Yields At Risk Again As Uncertainty Looms
    February 21, 2013

    Ahead of the February 24-25 elections, opinion polls show tightened margins among the four main political groupings and a senate majority in doubt. Uncertainty will increase if the election leaves the center-left Democrats dependent on the support of senators allied with Mario Monti. Doubts about the next government’s durability and its commitment to further adjustment and reform will put government bond yields at risk of renewed upward pressure.

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  • Ireland: Promissory Note Deal Gives Government Key Gains
    February 13, 2013

    An agreement between Ireland’s government and central bank replaces high-interest amortizing promissory notes with lower interest floating rate bonds. The deal gives the government a key political win, reducing interest costs and financing needs. Together with long maturities on the new bonds and arrangements for the central bank to hold them for a considerable period, these results should facilitate an earlier return to full bond market access.

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  • Spain: Renewed Cross-Border Buying Buoys Bonds
    January 14, 2013

    ECB efforts to reduce the redenomination risk in the Euro Area have met with success in Spain. Net foreign purchases of Spanish government securities ran at an annual pace of 7.5% of GDP from August through November, the latest month for which data are available. Stepped-up borrowing has enabled the government to pre-fund a sizable portion of 2013 financing needs.

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