The Capital Flows Report is one of the IIF's flagship publications and is generally issued three times a year: in January, and around the time of the IIF Spring and Annual Membership meetings (usually May/June and October).
The report provides data on the magnitude and composition of private capital flows to (and from) a sample of 30 key emerging market economies in the four major regions. It also provides analysis on the factors driving those flows and considers both likely and desirable policy shifts.
The report provides forecasts of flows both for the current year and the year ahead. The IIF capital flows data are compiled from a wide array of sources. They are part of the unique presentation of the capital account provided in each country database, which is based on a creditor composition.
The data are widely used and referenced in the press and the international financial community. For more detailed information on our capital flows data, please consult our User Guide, which answers frequently asked questions (FAQ) and explains key concepts used in our report. If you have further questions about our analysis, feel free to contact Robin Koepke.
Capital Flows Publications
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2013 January Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies
January 22, 2013Private capital flows to emerging economies have revived strongly, supported by a generally more risk-friendly attitude of investors since mid-2012. The macroeconomic backdrop remains unusually favorable for private capital flows to emerging economies. On the one hand, very easy monetary policy in mature economies and the prospect of poor returns is “pushing” money out of those markets. On the other hand, higher growth in emerging economies, combined with higher interest rates is “pulling” funds in. This “push” versus “pull” debate has taken on new vigor following the latest round central bank easing, notably by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Our research shows that both sets of factors are important.
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2012 October Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies
October 13, 2012The outlook for net private capital flows to emerging market economies has brightened somewhat. While 2012 will see the second straight year of declines by around $40 billion relative to the previous year (to $1,026 billion), this would be $114 billion more than estimated in our June Capital Flows Report. Higher debt flows—commercial bank flows and bond purchases from non-bank sources—account for the bulk of this upward revision. Renewed large-scale asset purchases by the U.S. Federal Reserve and a decline in risk aversion since the middle of the year have contributed to this improved prospect.
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2012 June Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies
June 07, 2012Net private capital flows to emerging market economies remain quite volatile and subject to disturbance from the Euro Area crisis. They fell in 2011 relative to 2010 (to $1,030 billion from $1,088 billion) and are likely to be lower again in 2012 ($912 billion), even though the macroeconomic performance of emerging market economies (and thus the return on investments there) remains substantially better than that of mature economies. Rapid mood swings are also apt to make market-based and banking related flows quite volatile. While we have raised our capital flows forecasts since our January report, the projections are subject to unusually large downside risks owing to continued tensions in the Euro Area.
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2012 January Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies
January 24, 2012Net private capital flows to our sample of 30 major emerging market economies have faltered in recent months. Net flows are now estimated to have been $910 billion in 2011, and are projected to be $746 billion in 2012. Our latest estimate for 2011 is $143 billion below the full year forecast made in September 2011. Although our dataset is annual rather than quarterly, this would be consistent with a sharp drop-off in capital flows beginning late in the third quarter of 2011 and extending through Q4. This weakness has persisted into 2012. Our lower projection for 2012 ($338 billion less than in September 2011) essentially extrapolates the weakness evident in flows in the last few months of 2011 through the first half of 2012.
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2011 September Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies
September 25, 2011Private capital flows to emerging economies have been subject to conflicting forces in recent months. On the one hand, rising fragilities and uncertainties surrounding the global economic outlook have dampened overall flows, as is typical in such adverse periods. On the other hand, however, the fact that global economic worries are concentrated in mature economies, and that interest rates and bond yields in those economies have been cut to the bone means that the relative attractiveness of emerging markets generally continues to improve. This should promote net flows to emerging economies. In our projections, these two developments broadly offset each other.
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2011 June Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies
June 01, 2011Private capital inflows to emerging economies revived sharply in 2010 and should continue to be relatively buoyant in 2011 and 2012 as ongoing strong growth and financial deepening encourage greater foreign investment. We forecast flows to increase to $1,041 billion in 2011 and $1,056 billion in 2012. Most of the $81 billion upward revision of our 2011 estimate since January is due to higher inflows to China and Brazil. China accounts for about 30% of all private capital inflows to the emerging economies we cover, a share that is nearly twice as large as Brazil’s and three times that of India. There has been further monetary policy tightening and exchange rate appreciation in most emerging economies since the beginning of the year, but financial conditions remain too accommodative in many cases.
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2011 January Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies
January 24, 2011Private capital flows to emerging economies have surged since early 2009, encouraged by positive growth and risk perceptions of emerging markets and easy money in the G3. Net private inflows to emerging economies are now estimated to have been $908 billion in 2010, up from $602 billion in 2009. The 2010 estimate has been revised up by $83 billion since October. Private inflows picked up in all regions in 2010 and flows to China reached an all-time high of $227 billion. With favorable conditions in most emerging markets likely to persist, net private capital flows are projected to increase to just over $1 trillion in 2012.
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