The Global Economic Monitor is the Institute’s flagship economic product designed to provide readers with an overall survey of the IIF’s key views and forecasts on the global economy. It is generally issued mid-month, 10 times a year (some months, i.e. July/August, are combined).
The GEM consists of several sections.
- The first covers the main themes relevant to global outlook in that period.
- The second provides specific, detailed forecasts of the three major economies (the United States, Euro Area and Japan).
- The third focuses on the emerging economies (EM), with pages on each of the major emerging regions (Emerging Asia, Emerging Europe, Latin America and Africa/Middle East).
There are detailed global outlook tables and comprehensive tables of monthly economic indicators for 23 emerging economies. The GEM is chart (and table) intensive, thus providing IIF members with a comprehensive, but easy to use means of tracking global economic developments.
May 22, 2013
The recent data flow has been marked by two notable contrasts. First, GDP growth has disappointed in emerging markets, but not in mature economies. Second, the global outlook has deteriorated as measured by business sentiment surveys, but has brightened according to financial markets. What do we make of these conflicting signals? On balance, we believe the moderate global economic expansion remains on track even as the outlook for emerging markets has deteriorated somewhat. Emerging market policy easing and more supportive financial conditions in mature economies provide welcome support.Read More
April 16, 2013
The good news first: the global expansion remains on track. Confidence in the global manufacturing sector remains at a level consistent with modest growth. Among mature economies, a huge monetary stimulus is underway in Japan that even surpasses corresponding efforts by other major central banks. The Fed is still in easing mode, and it is only a matter of time in our view that the ECB will join with a new set of nonstandard measures. While Chinese GDP growth in Q1 has disappointed, credit growth remains strong and the government is prepared to again turn to supporting fiscal measures if needed.
The bad news:Read More
March 14, 2013
We have become more optimistic about the global growth recovery this month. First, the data flow in Q1 provided more evidence of strength, particularly the improvement in global manufacturing sentiment, the resilience of U.S. consumption, and the solid growth of Chinese production and consumption in the first two months of the year. But there is also more dispersion: we now think that the Euro Area upswing will be less pronounced than we thought before, leading us to lower our 2013 forecast. Second, the materialization of risks (U.S. sequester, Italian elections) is looking less disruptive than feared. Third, financial markets remain in a buoyant mood for now.Read More
February 08, 2013
The evidence is mounting that the global economy has reached an inflection point at the turn of the year. GDP growth is recovering after a dismal last quarter of 2012, where growth is likely to have been the weakest since 2009Q1. The latest data releases are in line with our expectation of a continuing gradual acceleration through 2013. The sequence of events leading to this improvement started with a number of positive policy developments, including resolute action by the major central banks to reduce tail risks in the economy and to stimulate growth. This has lifted financial markets in the last several months, followed by a broader improvement in business sentiment and, more recently, is showing up in better hard data releases.Read More
December 13, 2012
One year ago, we were of the view that 2012 would be a tough year, but that 2013 would show some improvement. One year on, we have essentially delayed that acceleration by a year. 2012 was indeed tough (global growth was an anemic 2.5%) but global growth in 2013 is now projected to be not much better: 2.7% — a percentage point below what we projected as likely for 2013 one year ago. Now, we think improvement will finally show up in 2014.Read More
November 02, 2012
GDP growth releases for Q3 have been surprisingly strong so far. Those countries that have yet to report Q3 will tend to be the weaker ones, however. With the exception of Asia, our view remains that Q3 results contain a lot of noise as opposed to signals. On balance, underlying global growth is probably accelerating although this is only a marginal gain from a very subdued pace.Read More
September 28, 2012
Confidence has been boosted in recent weeks by forceful central bank action. While growth has been tracking weaker in Asia and the U.S., we have become somewhat more optimistic about the global outlook for 2013. We abstain from making significant changes for several reasons, however. First, in Europe implementation of the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program is still dependent on political action. A delay would likely lead to a renewed intensification of the crisis. The reluctance of some peripheral countries to sign up for ESM assistance is indicating that this is a real risk. Second, while more monetary stimulus is helpful, the reasons for a weak growth outlook have been largely outside the monetary sphere. Fiscal consolidation in the Euro Area and the U.S. is weighing on growth. Therefore, we expect U.S. economic conditions to remain weak, which in turn suggests that the Fed is likely to scale up its asset purchases further.Read More