The Global Economic Monitor is the Institute’s flagship economic product designed to provide readers with an overall survey of the IIF’s key views and forecasts on the global economy. It is generally issued mid-month, 10 times a year (some months, i.e. July/August, are combined).
The GEM consists of several sections.
- The first covers the main themes relevant to global outlook in that period.
- The second provides specific, detailed forecasts of the three major economies (the United States, Euro Area and Japan).
- The third focuses on the emerging economies (EM), with pages on each of the major emerging regions (Emerging Asia, Emerging Europe, Latin America and Africa/Middle East).
There are detailed global outlook tables and comprehensive tables of monthly economic indicators for 23 emerging economies. The GEM is chart (and table) intensive, thus providing IIF members with a comprehensive, but easy to use means of tracking global economic developments.
November 14, 2013
Recent data in both mature and emerging markets have been consistent with the global economy achieving a significant pick-up in growth in 2014, with a particular increase in momentum in mature economies (notwithstanding some temporary weakening in Q3 in Japan and the Euro Area). Nevertheless, concerns remain whether this acceleration will materialize and central banks have continued to take out insurance against disinflation risks.Read More
September 17, 2013
Activity has continued to strengthen in the advanced economies, but differences across the EM world remain prominent. Those EMs that are closely integrated in the international supply chain, notably in Asia, have benefited from the lift in the mature economies. However, external financing conditions have tightened significantly for countries that are seen as particularly vulnerable to a tapering of QE3 purchases in the U.S. Reflecting such concerns, we have marked down our 2014 growth forecasts for a number of EMs, including Turkey and India. Overall, the EM financial environment has continued to be quite volatile, although FX rates and stock markets have recovered a bit from recent lows, suggesting that capital flows are stabilizing.Read More
August 01, 2013
The projected acceleration in global GDP growth is broadly on track as we enter 2013H2. This is primarily due to a pick-up in momentum in the mature economies, where growth has already increased notably in Q2: U.S. GDP growth accelerated from downwardly revised prior quarters, the Euro Area may have exited recession and UK growth doubled from Q1, while Japan likely continued to grow rapidly. EM growth is also picking up, but from a low level and weak sentiment indicators suggest caution going forward.Read More
June 19, 2013
We have warned for a while about the global risks stemming from volatile market conditions in anticipation of an exit from easy U.S. monetary policy. The past month has given a flavor of this risk, with Treasury yields rising and prices of risk assets falling. Economic fundamentals have evolved broadly as expected, however. The Fed’s June 19 post-meeting guidance clarified that tapering should occur before year-end and that QE3 is currently expected to end in mid-2014. With the economy growing around trend despite significant fiscal tightening, we are steadily approaching a phase of normalization – a gradual realignment of monetary policy to its historical relationship with growth and inflation.Read More
May 22, 2013
The recent data flow has been marked by two notable contrasts. First, GDP growth has disappointed in emerging markets, but not in mature economies. Second, the global outlook has deteriorated as measured by business sentiment surveys, but has brightened according to financial markets. What do we make of these conflicting signals? On balance, we believe the moderate global economic expansion remains on track even as the outlook for emerging markets has deteriorated somewhat. Emerging market policy easing and more supportive financial conditions in mature economies provide welcome support.Read More
April 16, 2013
The good news first: the global expansion remains on track. Confidence in the global manufacturing sector remains at a level consistent with modest growth. Among mature economies, a huge monetary stimulus is underway in Japan that even surpasses corresponding efforts by other major central banks. The Fed is still in easing mode, and it is only a matter of time in our view that the ECB will join with a new set of nonstandard measures. While Chinese GDP growth in Q1 has disappointed, credit growth remains strong and the government is prepared to again turn to supporting fiscal measures if needed.
The bad news:Read More
March 14, 2013
We have become more optimistic about the global growth recovery this month. First, the data flow in Q1 provided more evidence of strength, particularly the improvement in global manufacturing sentiment, the resilience of U.S. consumption, and the solid growth of Chinese production and consumption in the first two months of the year. But there is also more dispersion: we now think that the Euro Area upswing will be less pronounced than we thought before, leading us to lower our 2013 forecast. Second, the materialization of risks (U.S. sequester, Italian elections) is looking less disruptive than feared. Third, financial markets remain in a buoyant mood for now.Read More