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Economic Research
Photo of Laura Piscitelli

Laura Piscitelli

Quantitative Modeling Specialist
Global Macroeconomic Analysis

Bio

After a two year spell in academia (University of Strathclyde), Laura joined the Bank of England in 2000. Initially, she worked in the Monetary Analysis Directorate, as modeling specialist in the international economics first and then contributing to the development of the Bank of England forecasting model. In 2007, she moved to the Financial Stability Directorate, working on credit risk modeling, analysis of global imbalances and stress testing.

Education

Master degree in Economics (1995), University of Glasgow. PhD in Economics (1998), University of Strathclyde

Publications

  • May 2013 Global Economic Monitor
    May 22, 2013

    The recent data flow has been marked by two notable contrasts. First, GDP growth has disappointed in emerging markets, but not in mature economies. Second, the global outlook has deteriorated as measured by business sentiment surveys, but has brightened according to financial markets. What do we make of these conflicting signals? On balance, we believe the moderate global economic expansion remains on track even as the outlook for emerging markets has deteriorated somewhat. Emerging market policy easing and more supportive financial conditions in mature economies provide welcome support.

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  • Making stress testing valuable
    April 17, 2013

    The 2013 Atlanta Fed Financial Markets Annual Conference focused on the role of stress testing as a prudential tool. The general message was that stress testing is a useful tool, but must be used keeping in mind its shortcomings as well as its powers. There are important examples in the U.S. on both of these. As reminded by Chairman Bernanke in his conference keynote speech, the stress testing program introduced in the U.S. in 2009 had the beneficial effect of calming markets by providing credible information about losses and helping improve the resilience of the U.S. banking sector. But, as indicated by the failure of the stress test of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2008, stress tests results are only as good and reliable as the models they depend on and the scenarios that are simulated.

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  • April 2013 Global Economic Monitor
    April 16, 2013

    The good news first: the global expansion remains on track. Confidence in the global manufacturing sector remains at a level consistent with modest growth. Among mature economies, a huge monetary stimulus is underway in Japan that even surpasses corresponding efforts by other major central banks. The Fed is still in easing mode, and it is only a matter of time in our view that the ECB will join with a new set of nonstandard measures. While Chinese GDP growth in Q1 has disappointed, credit growth remains strong and the government is prepared to again turn to supporting fiscal measures if needed.

    The bad news:

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  • The new Bank of England Bank Liability Survey
    March 26, 2013

    The Bank of England published today the results of its new quarterly Bank Liability Survey (BLS). The survey was launched to complement the information provided by the quarterly Credit Conditions Survey (CCS). While the CCS provides information on banks’ demand, supply and cost of credit, the BLS surveys banks on the total amount as well as the composition of their liabilities, together with their cost of funding. The scope of the survey is to identify the factors behind changes in deposits, or how much changes in funding costs vs changes in funding availability affect credit supply. The BLS is also intended to help monitoring developments in banks’ balance sheets, including those due to regulation.

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  • March 2013 Global Economic Monitor
    March 14, 2013

    We have become more optimistic about the global growth recovery this month. First, the data flow in Q1 provided more evidence of strength, particularly the improvement in global manufacturing sentiment, the resilience of U.S. consumption, and the solid growth of Chinese production and consumption in the first two months of the year. But there is also more dispersion: we now think that the Euro Area upswing will be less pronounced than we thought before, leading us to lower our 2013 forecast. Second, the materialization of risks (U.S. sequester, Italian elections) is looking less disruptive than feared. Third, financial markets remain in a buoyant mood for now.

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  • February 2013 Global Economic Monitor
    February 08, 2013

    The evidence is mounting that the global economy has reached an inflection point at the turn of the year. GDP growth is recovering after a dismal last quarter of 2012, where growth is likely to have been the weakest since 2009Q1. The latest data releases are in line with our expectation of a continuing gradual acceleration through 2013. The sequence of events leading to this improvement started with a number of positive policy developments, including resolute action by the major central banks to reduce tail risks in the economy and to stimulate growth. This has lifted financial markets in the last several months, followed by a broader improvement in business sentiment and, more recently, is showing up in better hard data releases.

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  • Another one goes
    February 06, 2013

    Last week’s announced nationalization of the Dutch financial conglomerate SNS REAAL is a sign that there are still conspicuous pockets of distress in the European banking sector, despite the generalized improvement of funding conditions (e.g., see early repayment of LTRO).

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