Economic Views

China experienced unprecedented portfolio outflows in 2022H1, … that started right when war in Ukraine broke out and persisted. Our trackers point t...

Peru’s current account deficit printed above 5% of GDP in Q1, … but we think the underlying external position is still quite healthy. Net of FDI r...

We update our database of foreign flows to local-currency govies, … where heterogeneity across EM is substantial since covid began. Major EMs like...

EM ex China outflows since the war began are not unprecedented. In contrast, outflows from China in Q1 were the largest on record, … and were bro...

Lacking market access, frontier markets will face funding gaps. Covering Ecuador’s funding gap for about $1.5 billion in 2023-24, … should not be to...

We discuss external bond recovery value scenarios, … consistent with Sri Lanka’s restructuring targets, … while illustrating the importance of Chine...

High-yield EM credit has done very well in recent months, … but we remain concerned about quite a few frontier markets. El Salvador’s outlook will r...

We present recovery value scenarios for Ghana’s external debt, … that are consistent with the country’s restructuring targets, … and a set of fairly...

We present our EM current account forecasts for next year. Wide deficits will continue in Turkey, Hungary, and Philippines. In a group of countries ...

We update our high-frequency tracking of EM trade balances, … and discuss broader BoP developments for selected countries. Some like Brazil continue...

India’s trade deficit in H1 was the widest since the taper tantrum. Imports of deeply discounted Russian oil have risen sharply, … but won’t...

We track EM trade balances as a proxy for current accounts. Imports increased well past pre-covid levels everywhere, … but strong exports prevente...

Ghana is trying to restructure its local and external debt, … aiming for total debt of 55% of GDP in present value terms. We show present value rati...

Sri Lanka secured a $2.9bn IMF program pending debt restructuring talks. We assess capacity to pay interest on restructured debt in coming years. ...

Several EMs are seeing outflows from local-currency government bonds. China is one of them, in the context of record portfolio outflows in Q1. Our t...

Kenya is one of the frontier markets cut from the bond market. The IMF program promises a lot of frontloaded fiscal adjustment, … by the standards o...

This note examines the impact of labor hoarding on euro area employment, labor costs, and the region’s inflation outlook.

The BoK paused its rate cutting cycle in January in the face of heightened FX volatility in large part driven by a surge in domestic political uncertainty. We see the BoK resume its cutting cycle in February to a (below-consensus) low of 2% in 2025 as downside growth risks continue to dominate.

This note focuses on key challenges facing Turkish authorities, particularly the factors contributing to a slower-than-projected disinflation process.

This note assesses Germany's fiscal space to determine the extent to which public investment can be increased to support the reform of its manufacturing sector without jeopardizing public debt sustainability.