Global Macro Views

New 10% tariffs on $450–500bn of Chinese imports escalate U.S.-China trade tensions. China responded with tariffs on U.S. energy and agriculture, and...

Trump’s reciprocal tariff plan targets goods and VAT asymmetries to align U.S. tariffs with trading partners. We analyze Emerging Market vulnerabilit...

The U.S. dollar remains the world's dominant reserve currency, but its supremacy faces emerging challenges. Historical trends in globalization have b...

Tariff threats against Canada and Mexico, though delayed 30 days, have already disrupted markets. Repeated tariff use weakens U.S. leverage, pushing ...

Political and policy uncertainty define the 2025 global economic outlook. In the U.S., inflationary pressures from tariffs and immigration policies p...

This note discusses key challenges in Argentina, where multiple exchange rates have been the norm since 2019, focusing on conditions and timing for exchange rate liberalization and drawing lessons from Egypt's recent successful experience.

President Trump aims to boost U.S. oil production, but the industry’s capacity to do so is uncertain. This analysis explores regulatory actions a Trump administration could take, like easing permits and rolling back policies, though market complexities may limit production growth.

This note explores trends in U.S. labor productivity compared to Europe, the relative contributions of key sectors to economic growth, and the role of AI in potentially influencing these dynamics.