Markets hunt down divergence trades Equity flows chase growth standouts Softer USD-lift for corporate earnings? U.S. debt ceiling-kicking the crisis d
We showcase the importance of Global Value Chains (GVCs) for world trade. Using granular trade data, we determine that US trade balance with the rest
We update our model for the USD/CNY fix, concluding that USD/CNY could still fix lower for some time, given that the RMB in trade-weighted terms is st
The striking slowdown in world trade growth over the past five years has been the subject of much research. In the first of a two-part series on trade
2H growth will face more policy headwinds, especially on fiscal front. Expect GDP growth at 6.7% in 2H and 6.8% for 2017. These f
Markets seemed to move last week based on President Trump's July 12th statement that his Administration would impose tariffs or quotas on steel. ' As
We expect China's growth to stay robust in 2Q, growing at 6.9% y/y and beating consensus (6.8%) again. Our regression, using the PBoC quarterly survey
Thus, the record low M2 should not daunt the PBoC's delever
China has experienced massive capital outflows in the past two years, this vicious circle weakened economic confidence and heightened domestic financi
We estimate that non-resident portfolio inflows to emerging markets rose to USD21 billion in May All four EM regions saw portfolio inflows in May, wit
In the months since the election, the ability of Dollar moves to explain USD/CNY fixings is down sharply.' We interpret this regime change as a de fa
China's total debt (ex-financials) now tops 265% of GDP, marking a sharp rise from 140% in 2008. Heavily indebted non-financial corporates in China ar
We estimate a simple model that examines the role that Dollar direction plays in the fixing mechanism. Prior to Nov. 8, the fixing displayed asymmetry
There is a perception in the market that capital controls have helped balance China's capital flows. But experts that we talked to in Beijing were les
We estimate that non-resident portfolio inflows to emerging markets were solid at USD21 billion in April All four EM regions saw portfolio inflows in
The sharp decline in the current account surplus,' which fell over $100 billion last year, was driven by a drop in the goods balance, not services.' W
We estimate that non-resident portfolio inflows to emerging markets rose to USD30 billion in March - the highest monthly inflow since January 2015. Al
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Looking on the bright side Trump vs. WTO China-green shoots in spring India-GDP surprises, but revision likely' Colombia easing set to continue
Is the reflation trade coming back? China - capital outflows remain large India - RBI surprises, keeping rates on hold MENA - short-term pain, long-te