In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at takeaways from the U.S. mid-term elections, the latest U.S.-China trade talks, Brazil in the wake of a newly elected government, and U.S. soybean exports.
China's current account has traditionally registered large surpluses, but has swung into deficit this year based on data from Q1 through Q3, adding to the case that the RMB could be overvalued and needs to depreciate.
Just as in 2015, our activity tracker points to a slowdown, "¦ even though official GDP figures remain broadly stable. We compare the current slowdown
China is seeing the rise of a new kind of conglomerate, companies that occupy unprecedented roles in the world's second largest economy. With business
Non-resident portfolio flows turned negative in October with $7.6 billion in outflows (all from equities-debt saw inflows). China saw non-resident por
Markets are fixated on 7.00 as an important threshold for $/CNY, thinking a move through that level could signal competitive devaluation. But the f
Portfolio inflows to EMs increased slightly to $7.9 billion in September, due mostly to a rebound in bond inflows to $5.6 billion-offsetting the slowd
In the wake of the latest escalation in China-US trade tensions, RMB has not resumed its sharp devaluation from a few months ago. This is because t
The EM sell-off is abating as the worst FX overvaluations have shrunk, but risks related to China remain in the context of the ongoing trade war. W
How long can investor bias toward the U.S. persist? Equity valuations have come down-but few markets look cheap EM risk aversion continues to rise, bu
Equities were more resilient with over $7 billion in inflows-of which China was $5.8 billion; in contrast, debt saw
Changes in China's FX regime have been associated with capital outflows, notably the 2014 band widening and the "step" devaluation in August 2015.
With this edition of the IIF Capital Flows Tracker, we introduce a new version of the EM Portfolio Flows Tracker. Our " Tracker 4.0 " provides a more
Sharp drop in global trade volumes, driven mainly by emerging markets' Warning bell on global stocks as defensives outperform cyclicals' FX-denominate
The recent RMB devaluation is raising fears a currency war is imminent. RMB declines have undone strength from early 2018, a natural up and down. But
Analysts weigh current growth signals against the potential impact of tariffs' Dollar strength prompts a rethink across asset prices What next for com
Welcome back to another edition of Sticky Notes, the IIF's review of this week's events in international economics and politics. If you would like to
The RMB had been on the sidelines of growing trade tensions, but its recent weakness is raising fears of competitive devaluation. We continue to th
Mounting trade tensions raise risks for global equities, emerging markets Sudden stop in non-resident portfolio equity flows to China Big drop in U.S.
Market positioning highlights optimism on U.S., Japanese equities, risks for Treasuries, EMs U.S. yield curve flattening leaves bank stocks unruffled"