China still enjoys strong growth momentum driven by services and advanced manufacturing. Trade tensions and deleveraging of a very indebted economy ar
Despite U.S. fiscal expansion, the global supply of safe assets may be nearing a cyclical peak' Large U.S. banks report record net income in Q1, helpe
We recently introduced a new activity tracker for China. That tracker displays far more swings than the official GDP data. We explore if swings in cre
Geopolitics boosting oil prices, but this s
China's real GDP growth has been very stable since 2015, unlike its main trading partners, which continue to see normal variability. A new activity
Trade wars could dent profit margins, challenging expectations of strong earnings growth European investors likely to keep calm and carry on after dov
China's foreign exchange reserve recovered in 2017, after a decline of $1 trillion over two and half years. This was entirely due to the reversal of f
At this time last year we warned that political uncertainty had risen to remarkably high levels. Now the questions may have changed, but risks remain.
Bottom-up analysis shows that CPI in 2018 will be moderately higher, "¦ "¦driven by food, residence and probably also services.' Thus, we think the ch
Both on- and off-balance sheet Chinese banking sector assets ballooned in the past decade. However, many drivers behind the rapid asset growth seem to
China's state-owned companies are suffering from high leverage and low return, "¦ "¦ partly due to their high concentration in upstream heavy industri
We expect China's CPI to be slightly higher, yet still contained in 2018, "¦ "¦ thanks to limited pass-through from PPI and slower growth of the money
China's corporate debt relative to GDP is the highest both historically and among the major economies. However, Chinese companies' leverage, measured
Non-resident portfolio inflows to emerging markets dipped slightly to $13.6 billion in October, with a jump in equity inflows offsetting a slowdown in
The real-term FAI growth by non-SOE companies fell from 40% in 2011 to only about 2% in the past year. There are both benign and worrisome reasons beh
Sizing up the earnings turnaround' Pricing policy uncertainty' Bank earnings offer clues on cyclical recovery Frontier markets see a continued surge i
This note discusses the structures of China's external and foreign exchange balance sheet.' The liability-side of the external and FX balance sheet is
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Markets hunt down divergence trades Equity flows chase growth standouts Softer USD-lift for corporate earnings? U.S. debt ceiling-kicking the crisis d
We showcase the importance of Global Value Chains (GVCs) for world trade. Using granular trade data, we determine that US trade balance with the rest