Entries for 'Asia Pacific'
November 15, 2022
Decentralized finance (DeFi) and Web 3.0 are significant developments for the future of finance. Their underlying technologies could generate long-term value for financial clients and institutions, but risks to participants exist and business model and regulatory challenges deserve attention.
November 2, 2022
CCA countries have shown remarkable resilience in the face of external shocks. A sharp increase in tourism receipts and remittances, along with high energy prices, led to solid growth. While the terms of trade shock has had diverging effects on the region.
October 3, 2022
Debt default risk has gone up substantially, as the financing gap has increased.
September 14, 2022
ASEAN-5 is highly dependent on China for exports. The region is also an important indicator of global activity. External demand remained surprisingly robust in 1H2022. However, we expect some deceleration in 2H2022. China’s slowdown remains the key risk for ASEAN-5.
September 9, 2022
• This year's PBoC easing has created ample liquidity yet failed to stimulate loan growth.
• Total credit growth is also much weaker if government bonds are excluded.
• This is largely due to a lack of demand and weak confidence.
• Thanks to policy guidance, medium/long-term loans to industrial
September 6, 2022
China's invincible housing market finally collapsed
August 31, 2022
Portfolio investment flow to China is a weathervane for China's financial health and global investor confidence. This China Spotlight examines the forces that drive China's net bond and equity flows.
August 10, 2022
Indonesia has faced less pressure than other ASEAN countries. Favorable terms of trade and fiscal subsidies helped contain energy prices. Bank Indonesia can afford to be patient with hikes as core CPI remains moderate. Policy normalization through term structure and government bond sales, should help ease capital outflow pressures amid global tightening.
July 31, 2022
China’s banking sector has expanded rapidly in the past decade, with a brief pause in 2018-19 due to deleveraging efforts. It is also competitive globally, with one of the lowest cost ratios. However, banks’ returns and interest margins have deteriorated, and credit risk remains elevated.
July 21, 2022
Shanghai’s lockdown in the spring grabbed global attention and shook investor confidence, but its impact was less severe than Wuhan’s lockdown in 2020. However, the recovery may be more difficult this time due to housing woes. We maintain our subdued outlook of 3.5% growth for 2022.
July 12, 2022
The spillovers from the war in Ukraine appears to be somewhat more contained than expected earlier.
July 7, 2022
After loans were swapped into bonds by 2018, the local government's on-balance-sheet debt is straightforward. However, debt hidden in various government-backed investment entities is still a major concern. We argue that this so-called hidden debt is, at most, LG contingent liabilities.
July 1, 2022
Schedule for the IIF's 2022 virtual investor trips released.
June 24, 2022
China’s exports to Russia fell in March-May, as sanctions limited Russia’s ability to pay. China’s imports from Russia hit a record high in May, lifted by both growing volume and rising prices. We estimate that China has been paying spot price for Russian oil, but a discounted price recently.
June 14, 2022
The RMB has made marked progress in its global use, especially in cross-border investments. However, it is far behind the USD and EUR in global payments, reserves, FX trading, and trade finance. To promote the global use of RMB, China needs to further open up its financial sector.
June 1, 2022
The widening of the current account deficit has led to a decline in official reserves to critical levels. Reviving the IMF program is necessary to ensure that Pakistan can meet its financing obligations
May 20, 2022
China's State Council unveiled a plan to promote retirement savings, which is sorely needed, given inadequate public and employer pensions. This new retirement savings plan will help deepen China's financial markets and reduce volatility.
May 13, 2022
China’s FX market has grown and changed significantly. This China Spotlight looks into China’s FX market structure and how it shapes the RMB exchange rate.
April 29, 2022
Despite weak domestic demands, we expect a moderately narrower current account surplus in 2022, due to rising energy prices. Moreover, under the relatively stable headline numbers, the structure of China's current account is undergoing significant changes.
April 20, 2022
Russia’s war on Ukraine has caused a strong surge in commodity prices, as well as uncertainty regarding global growth and the outlook for inflation. We have revised down our growth forecast for the ASEAN-5 and South Korea. Rising inflation will prompt central banks to begin policy normalization in ’22. Current account dynamics will be driven by relative exposure to commodities. Risks stem from an uncertain outlook for China and higher energy prices.