Entries for 'Sub-Saharan Africa'
April 2, 2018
The deficit spiked last year, driving public debt even higher, to 57% of GDP. Election and drought-related expenses were the main deficit drivers, and
March 13, 2018
Recent political changes and policy adjustments have improved investor and consumer sentiment.' Fiscal policy is focused on deficit reduction, which c
February 1, 2018
"¢' ' Rising global bond yields rattle the "risk-on" consensus "¢' ' Despite risks, the outlook remains constructive for EM flows-particularly under
December 8, 2017
South Africa avoided a potentially damaging ratings downgrade from Moody's in November, but has been put on watch for a downgrade in the next three mo
November 2, 2017
The fiscal picture has worsened - government debt is now projected to reach nearly 60% of GDP in FY2020/21 and the primary balance remains in deficit,
October 26, 2017
Despite South Africa's immense natural resource wealth, the mining sector's contribution to GDP con-tinues to slide Unease over the new mining charter
October 9, 2017
New oil production has boosted growth and shored up the balance of payments Greater exchange rate stability and falling inflation has provided scope f
September 13, 2017
While pressure on the naira has eased due to higher oil prices, increased production, and a weaker dollar, the spread between the parallel and officia
July 27, 2017
Non-performing loans rose sharply last year and are expected to increase further in 2017. While lending to the public sector continues to grow briskly
July 20, 2017
On our recent visit to Lagos and Abuja, we found business confidence recovering gradually and a consensus that the worst of the oil crash was over. No
July 10, 2017
The net IIP has turned positive, driven by a surge in outward direct investment over the past decade. However, net portfolio debt liabilities and the
July 6, 2017
South Africa's current account deficit has become more entrenched over the past decade. A larger income deficit now outweighs improvements in trade fr
June 16, 2017
Inflation is back in its target range, driven lower by moderation in food prices, and we expect it to hover around 5% in H2 2017. In the absence of a
June 13, 2017
Politics will keep exchange rate volatile this yea
June 8, 2017
South Africa fell into technical recession in Q1. But growth accelerated on a y/y basis and will still be higher in 2017 than in 2016. Prospects for a
June 2, 2017
Sentiment has improved, but we expect recovery to remain slow due to challenges in bringing oil production back to capacity and capital controls hampe
May 19, 2017
Dry weather during the "short rains" season late last year (which hit agricultural production in Q1), a deceleration in credit growth, and a wait-and
April 26, 2017
A year and a half into the Magufuli Presidency, significant progress has been made in spreading basic services such as universal education, clamping d
April 3, 2017
A combination of a shortfall in revenue and higher-than-budgeted expenditure in 2016 reversed the good progress made in the previous three years when
March 9, 2017
AT AN INFLECTION POINT During our recent visit to Tanzania, we saw mounting evidence that economic growth was slowing from its rapid pace of around 7