Entries for 'Capital Flows'
May 29, 2024
After bottoming out over the past two years, the momentum of nonresident capital flows to emerging markets has shifted. This in large part due to a better EM outlook relative to advanced economies, with average EM output growth likely to be higher and EM interest rate spreads likely to widen.
January 11, 2024
While rising geopolitical tensions create challenges for transition finance, risks are still in line with historical norms. However, continued stagnation in global trade and capital flows suggests de-globalization could stall a net zero future. Strategic trade wars—likely inevitable on the road to Net Zero—will bring the key role of export credit agencies to the fore.
December 13, 2023
We forecast solid – if unspectacular – global growth next year, …
with above-consensus forecasts for the US, Latin America and China, …
while the on...
October 13, 2023
Portfolio flows to EM stood at -$13.8 bn in September.
Equity and debt flows were -$12.0 bn and -$1.8 bn.
Chinese equities posted $4.4 bn in outflow...
July 13, 2023
Portfolio flows to EM stood at $22.1 bn in June.
Equity and debt flows were $12.3 bn and $9.8 bn.
Chinese equities posted $1.9 bn in inflows.
June 22, 2023
Elevated tensions between the US and China are raising lots of questions.
Markets are focused on how much de-globalization and de-risking this is cau...
June 14, 2023
In the immediate aftermath of the SVB shock almost three months ago, …
the critical question was if SVB was a genuinely new shock hitting the US, …
...
June 9, 2023
Portfolio flows to EM stood at $10.4 bn in May.
Equity and debt flows were $6.9 bn and $3.5 bn.
Chinese equities posted $0.1 bn in inflows.
May 8, 2023
Portfolio flows to EM stood at $9.8 bn in April.
Equity and debt flows were $2.1 bn and $7.7 bn.
Chinese equities posted $3.8 bn in inflows.
April 6, 2023
Portfolio flows to EM stood at $9.4 bn in March.
Equity and debt flows were $6.8 bn and $2.6 bn.
Chinese equities posted $7.2 bn in inflows.
March 9, 2023
Portfolio flows to EM stood at $22.9 bn in February.
Equity and debt flows were $4.9 bn and $17.9 bn.
Chinese equities posted $2.4 bn in inflows.
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February 15, 2023
Portfolio flows to EM stood at $65.7 bn in January.
Equity and debt flows were $23.5 bn and $42.2 bn.
Chinese equities posted $17.6 bn in inflows.
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January 11, 2023
Portfolio flows to EM stood at $1.7 bn in December.
Equity and debt flows were $4.4 bn and -$2.6 bn.
Chinese equities posted $6.3 bn in inflows.
December 8, 2022
Portfolio flows to EM stood at $37.4 bn in November.
Equity and debt flows were $23.0 bn and $14.4 bn.
Chinese equities posted $8.5 bn in inflows.
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November 8, 2022
Portfolio flows to EM stood at $9.2 bn in October.
Equity and debt flows were $1.7 bn and $7.6 bn.
Chinese equities posted $7.6 bn in outflows.
October 5, 2022
Portfolio flows to EM stood at -$2.9 bn in September.
Equity and debt flows were -$8.9 bn and $6.0 bn.
Chinese equities posted $0.7 bn in outflows.
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August 3, 2022
Portfolio flows to EM stood at -$9.8 bn in July.
Equity and debt flows were -$1.0 bn and -$8.8 bn.
Chinese equities posted $3.5 bn in outflows.
November 17, 2021
Non-resident portfolio flows to local markets have recovered Covid-related losses. Looking at country allocations, important shifts have taken place in recent years. Foreign holdings are significantly lower in Brazil, Mexico, Poland, and Turkey, and higher in Egypt, Indonesia, Russia, and South Africa, due to policies and FX. Importantly, pressure on EM to defend their currencies has declined in recent years. However, EM are now more directly exposed via foreign investment in local bonds. And the synchronization of global inflation makes them vulnerable to DM inflation.
November 10, 2021
Non-resident flows to EM local markets x/ China have now recovered from the Covid shock. Dynamics differ among countries, however, with some still seeing large cumulative outflows. Foreign investors currently hold around $600 bn in local government debt outside of China. Inflows have been relatively weak in recent months and cost of funding has risen across EM. The opening of China’s local market has had a large impact with $250 bn in inflows since ‘18. The country now accounts for close to 40% of total foreign investor positions in local EM debt.
November 1, 2021
Frontier Sub-Saharan Africa is emerging from the pandemic shock, but growth is comparably weak. We project a strong pickup in non-resident capital flows to $56.1 bn in 2021 from last year’s $23.6 bn. The recovery in FDI is robust, but persistently higher investment will be needed over the medium term. Financial conditions remain favorable, and strong Eurobond issuance drives the rise in portfolio flows. IMF emergency financing in 2020 and this year’s general SDR allocation have provided critical support. Assistance from IFIs will continue going forward, albeit at lower levels and with stronger conditionality. In addition, external financing needs are set to rise as substantial Eurobond amortization looms large. Thus, the region will need to attract higher and less volatile inflows to reduce external vulnerabilities. External financing risks are highest in Ghana, where market concerns over the country’s dent are rising. Angola and Nigeria are under less pressure, while IMF programs should help Kenya, Senegal, and Zambia.