A common opposing view to our nonsense output gap series is that employment has almost fully recovered, so how can a substantial amount of labor market slack remain? Rising labor participation among women flatters the picture, which we filter out by looking at prime-age male employment. Our work points to still significant slack in Spain, Italy and Greece.

The IIF is engaging in a thematic, 3-part series of papers on Digital Identities, covering AML frameworks, financial inclusion and business opportunities. 

We scan current accounts from a savings-investment angle, analyzing the contributions of public and private imbalances. Argentina’s external imbalances are mostly fiscal in nature, while Turkey’s are driven by a credit-dependent private sector. South Africa and Colombia run twin fiscal and external deficits.

Portfolio flows to Emerging Markets were $40.8 bn in June, the highest level in 5 months. Our tracking shows a surge in flows, driven by a strong recovery in Chinese equities. Equity and debt flows were $12.6 billion and $28.2 billion, respectively. Net capital flows into EM were -$18.6 billion in May.

EU structural funds have boosted growth in Eastern Europe, allowing for strong income convergence with the rest of the EU. Cuts in the 2021-27 EU budget will lead to smaller contributions, but a sudden slowdown is unlikely, and convergence will continue.

The June edition of the Insurance Update provides targeted updates on IIF insurance activities and events, and highlights relevant IIF publications or related regulatory developments in other fields. 

Negative-yielding debt hits a fresh record high of over $13 trillion; 75% of that is safe-haven government bonds; Low borrowing costs could provide some breathing room for EMs with high government financing needs; Climate change risks aren’t just domestic: over $29 trillion of G20 (mostly G7) cross-border investments are at risk. With awareness of these risks on the rise, our Green Flows Tracker shows net inflows of $2bn in Q2 (and record inflows for June); Insurer perspectives on LIBOR transition: the regulatory framework for EU insurers still requires a LIBOR-based term structure as the discount rate for insurance obligations.  

Real money flows into EM stocks and bonds have surged recently, perhaps in anticipation of a benign outcome to China-US trade talks. Our daily tracking estimates flows into non-China EM at $23 bn in Q2. Our measure of China’s “core” current account surplus remains healthy, but additional US tariffs could tip the balance and cause RMB to fall.

Addition to the MSCI EM Index would acknowledge capital markets reform and send a positive signal to investors. We expect foreign inflows of $1.8 billion from passive investors and up to $7 billion from active investors in 2020-2022.

Bearish sentiment stems from policy concerns. Key risks are Pemex’s fragility and US tensions. Weakening growth will make fiscal targets challenging to meet and add pressure on the central bank to ease monetary policy. Market discipline and a robust macro framework should help limit policy slippage. 

Our assessment of EM current accounts is benign, with large deficits just in South Africa and Colombia. However, still high debt amortization calls for caution. This is especially the case in Turkey and South Africa.
Resident outflows are a risk in Turkey and Argentina, despite much lower deficits due to import compression.

Neglect of structural distortions has prevented Morocco from matching its more successful EM peers in raising its standard of living. 

High import content in export production and investment is evident across the region. Recent import compression should support current account positions amid weak exports. However, the multiplier effects of import plunge on investment will likely depress GDP growth.

Disconnect between Fed dots and market rate expectations set to persist; Negative-yielding debt hits a record high of over $12 trillion—putting the risk of asset price bubbles in focus; Further USD strength could pose significant challenges for non-bank borrowers in emerging markets and mature markets outside the U.S.; More monetary stimulus would widen the gap between the cost of equity and debt, triggering another sharp accumulation in corporate debt; Robust growth in Panda bond issuance