US imports from China continue to grow despite tariffs. We examine whether this means tariffs are ineffective, creating value, volume, and price series by tariff group.

A soft exit out of the debt overhang is possible and the authorities now recognize the urgency of committing to meaningful and widespread reforms to improve long-term fiscal sustainability and rebuild confidence. However, the scope of credible reforms for 2019 remains unclear.

Portfolio inflows to EMs were $51.1 billion in January, the highest in 12 months. Equity and debt inflows increased to $33 billion and $18 billion, respectively. Net capital flows improved but remained in negative territory in December.

Fed flexibility on balance sheet normalization could have far-reaching consequences; Tech stock valuations suggest fears that trade war is morphing into tech war; A more dovish Fed spells respite for highly indebted EM borrowers; Unprecedented growth in green syndicated lending; Sharply higher debt in vulnerable low-income countries puts sustainable development goals at risk 

Our high frequency trackers show a substantial pick-up in flows, though the underlying picture is weaker than headline numbers suggest. The rebound is concentrated in China, with Mexico and Indonesia also up, while the flow picture to India, South Africa, Turkey and Thailand is weak, even after large outflows during the emerging markets sell-off last year.

The crypto industry moves into the new year reshaped by a tumultuous 2018. Despite ongoing regulatory and technical challenges, the underlying technology and crypto-based applications continue to move slowly towards mainstream adoption, as evidenced by recent private and official sector activity.

Sanctions lowered capital flows to Russia permanently but robust oil exports cushioned their economic impact. Our BoP Nowcast suggests a still manageable situation, despite a falling current account surplus due to lower oil.

Davos debates debt, urges action on financing for sustainable development goals; Analysts get more pessimistic about the outlook for corporate earnings; Global equity valuations are back to long-run averages—but are they cheap?; Long-term investors look to increase allocations to EM equities

Our trackers do not point to a convincing pick-up in flows beyond China, with flows to key emerging markets like India and South Africa quite weak, even after sizeable and persistent outflows during last year’s EM sell-off.

The January 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams in market fragmentation, regulatory capital, recovery and resolution, accounting, digital finance, sustainable finance, AML/CFT, insurance, and upcoming events.

This survey covers issues affecting asset allocation, including current macro-financial dynamics as well as structural trends that will shape the future of the industry, including sustainable finance, infrastructure investment and regulatory reform.

We assess the impact of potential policy surprises, using our BoP Nowcast and positioning toolkits. Low current account deficits pose limited risk, but in Mexico heavier positioning than in Brazil could amplify the impact of negative policy surprises.

The Basel Committee on Bank Supervision finalised the Basel III Market Risk standard on January 14, 2019.

Policy dissonance has been a key factor in market volatility, yield curve flattening; Growing concern about the longer-term implications of a U.S. government shutdown; If bank stocks are a bellwether, signals are not reassuring; China deleveraging on the back burner; rising refinancing risk for U.S. corporates

Not much has changed in the macro landscape, but markets have shifted to price an end to the hiking cycle. In effect, the Fed has become a casualty of the trade war, and further tightening (which we expect) is now harder.