This year’s EM sell-off underscored the importance of FX valuation with markets, in dramatic fashion, going after meaningful FX overvaluations. At this point, our models signal neutral or cheap valuations for much of EM, so that currency misalignments are less of a risk factor as we approach 2019. But a positioning overhang in emerging markets remains a material risk factor, given the intensity of capital flows to EM resulting from G-3 monetary stimulus. This piece starts a series of Global Macro Views on EM flows and positioning, which we kick off today by looking at flows over the EM sell-off this summer.

In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at key issues facing the incoming U.S. Congress, new realities in Mexico, U.S.-China trade talks, and potential auto tariffs.

Euro periphery current account balances have almost all swung into surplus, which is often cited as positive evidence that competitiveness has been restored. But the swing from current account deficit to surplus has a cyclical component, reflecting depressed import volumes due to still large output gaps in some cases. We estimate cyclically-adjusted balances for a range of output gap estimates. Adjusting for slack, Euro periphery current accounts are likely still in deficit.

Looking across the countries we cover in our Global Debt Monitor, non-financial corporate debt is at a record high of $75 trillion—up by $16 trillion since the 2013 taper tantrum.

The Euro zone current account balance is in sizeable surplus, which some see as a sign the Euro is undervalued and needs to rise. But the headline surplus in part reflects persistently large output gaps, which may be inflating the external balance by depressing import volumes. We derive a cyclically-adjusted current account balance for the Euro zone, which turns out to be negative, potentially signaling Euro overvaluation.
 

Estimates for Euro periphery output gaps are oddly small, even where real GDP has fallen substantially in the last 10 years. These estimates implicitly assume lots of activity is permanently lost, with potential “bending” down, almost as if to validate low actual GDP. The reality is that economic slack on the periphery is likely still sizeable, and holding down underlying inflation despite unprecedented ECB easing.

In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at takeaways from the U.S. mid-term elections, the latest U.S.-China trade talks, Brazil in the wake of a newly elected government, and U.S. soybean exports.

EM bank lending conditions tighten further in 2018Q3. Credit standards and funding conditions weakened more in Q3, as trade finance and the demand for loans began tightening. EM Europe saw their conditions worsen the most, while Sub-Saharan Africa was the only region to improve. Respondents expect less tightening in lending conditions for Q4.

One factor behind global equity market jitters: the growing focus on credit risk. Credit spreads have widened only modestly in 2018, but look increasingly vulnerable to a trigger event. Rising rates highlight vulnerabilities in housing markets. Less reliance on hard-currency debt in EM Asia ex-China, but more in Africa/Middle East. 
 

• Sanctions lowered capital flows to Russia permanently, limiting severely the ability of banks to borrow abroad.
• Risk of new sanctions put pressure on government flows. We assess scope for contagion from expanded sanctions.
• Foreign bank exposures to Russia shrunk significantly, and would be manageable under expanded sanctions.

Private sector balance sheets are susceptible, at varying degrees, to external debt rollover risk and lira depreciation. Under the currently improving, yet fragile, investor sentiment, Turkey’s sizable amortization payments will continue to expose the economy to high rollover risk through 2019. 

Global debt declined by $1.5 trillion to $247 trillion ($187 trillion ex-financials) in Q2 2018-mainly driven by mature markets. In contrast, EM debt continues to rise, topping $71 trillion in Q2 ($60 trillion ex-financials).

China's current account has traditionally registered large surpluses, but has swung into deficit this year based on data from Q1 through Q3, adding to the case that the RMB could be overvalued and needs to depreciate.

Just as in 2015, our activity tracker points to a slowdown, "¦ even though official GDP figures remain broadly stable. We compare the current slowdown

Investors undeterred by the prospect of gridlock after the U.S. midterm elections China sees much weaker FDI in Q3, though exports have held up well F

The ninth annual global bank risk management survey, "Accelerating digital transformation: Four imperatives for risk management", carried out by EY and

On November 5, the U.S. sanctions on Iran's financial and energy sectors took effect.' The temporary allotments, combined with the increased global oi