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January 5, 2017

1.'  What next for the dollar? ' '  Investors closed out 2016 with fairly firm convictions about where markets were headed: the dollar and mature equi

January 3, 2017

December portfolio outflows cap the weakest year since the crisis : Non-resident portfolio outflows from emerging markets are estimated to have been $

January 3, 2017
The proposed changes to the Basel III capital framework could further accentuate de-risking trends by global banks, with adverse impacts on cross-bord

January 3, 2017
With borrowing costs across mature and emerging markets on the ri

December 23, 2016
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS: 1) How is the EM lending survey conducted? 2) Is the EM bank lending survey similar to the lending surveys conducted by th

December 22, 2016
Real GDP growth has slowed as EU budget transfers fell in 2016, despite supportive fiscal and monetary policies.' Lower growth prompted an increase in

December 20, 2016
The retrenchment in non-resident portfolio flows to emerging markets that began on November 11th has yet to come to an end, according to our methodolo

December 20, 2016

The December 2016 edition of the IIF Global Economic Chartbook summarizes our current views on the global economy, drawing on our latest' Global Econo

December 20, 2016
The country's largest bank was nationalized on Sunday, December 18.' PrivatBank, owned by the oligarch and former Dnipro governor Ihor Kolomoisky, con

December 19, 2016

When visiting China last week, we found more confidence that recent economic growth had stabilized, but also greater uncertainty about 2017 given elev

December 16, 2016
Our recent visit to South Africa found an economy struggling to grow against a backdrop of increasing political strains, weak confidence and the need

December 15, 2016

1.'  Markets brace for higher bond yields, stronger USD: As investors digest the implications of the Fed's rather hawkish hike (see below), they see l

December 14, 2016
Real GDP growth remains weak, averaging 1% so far this year. Worryingly, growth momentum has rotated to private consumption in the third quarter, with

December 13, 2016
The election of Donald Trump as US president implies an abrupt shift in policy direction in the US, but the details remain vague and implementation un

December 13, 2016
We have increased our risk probabilities across the board, reflecting rising political and policy uncertainty. Our top risk is that populist platforms

December 12, 2016
Political Aftershocks ' The impeachment of President Park, if upheld by the constitutional court as appears likely, should end months of political tu

December 9, 2016
Benefitting from increased capital market access, the government has adopted a more gradual policy approach with the goal of winning next year's mid-t

December 8, 2016
Markets amp up ECB decision-When is a taper not a taper? Short-term debt relief for Greece-better than nothing! China-strong rebound in trade yet capi

December 8, 2016
We've discussed previously the uncertainty around the impacts of the U.S. election and the course of U.S. policy . However, recent personnel announcem

December 6, 2016
Our EM Growth Tracker rose in November, extending the streak to six consecutive months above 4.5% growth. Our tracking model indicates that real GDP g
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