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Publications
Oil: Market Volatility: How Serious?
June 19, 2014
Slightly tighter market fundamentals and an overlay of increased geopolitical risks have led us to raise our forecast for the average Brent benchmark
Weekly Insight: Risk Stays on-For Now
June 19, 2014
Markets see few reasons to steer clear of risk assets-at least for now Fed policy-steady as she goes Market signals and fundamentals both suggest only
Restoring Financing and Growth to Greek SMEs
June 18, 2014
SMEs in Greece have been hit hard by the crisis, suffering from sharp declines in output and a marked fall in new lending from banks compared with the
Weekly Insight: Summer Kickoff, Market Cooldown?
June 12, 2014
Equity markets reassess valuations Signs of credit market complacency? ECB accommodation lends further support to carry trades After a weak Q1, an une
Algeria: Time for Change / Algérie: L'heure du changement
June 12, 2014
Algeria's growth model based on hydrocarbon-financed fiscal spending and heavy-handed government intervention in the economy is not sustainable. Softe
Venezuela: Social Crisis Slowly Unfolding
June 10, 2014
Persistent social protests are threatening political stability and weighing on the economy's performance. Although the government has induced a 60% de
Weekly Insight: Action from the ECB, Views from London
June 5, 2014
ECB moves to a negative deposit rate Pessimism about mature economy growth Concerns about the outlook for EM capital flows Impact of new technologies
May 2014 Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies
May 29, 2014
Private capital inflows to emerging markets are benefiting from a supportive global environment, including an improving macro outlook and strong risk
May 2014 Portfolio Flows Tracker
May 29, 2014
Our EM portfolio flows tracker indicates that portfolio inflows to emerging economies continued their upward trend of the last several months in May,
Weekly Insight: Rainy Weather, Sunny Mood
May 29, 2014
Another leg down in forward rates, another leg up for emerging market assets Japan's largest pension fund prepares to increase allocations to equities
Bahrain: No Easy Solutions To Fiscal Vulnerabilities
May 29, 2014
Bahrain's fiscal situation is coming under increasing strain, with the government debt-to-GDP ratio having soared over the past five years due to pers
Chile: A Paradigm-Shifting Tax Reform
May 28, 2014
President Michelle Bachelet is seeking the largest overhaul of the tax code in decades, aimed at raising revenues for greater education spending and i
Emerging Europe: Diverging Challenges
May 28, 2014
Economic performance, policies and the near-term outlook have become increasingly divergent across Emerging Europe despite the improving external envi
Saudi Arabia: Giving Diversification A Boost
May 28, 2014
Saudi Arabia's economy is undergoing an important shift as oil surpluses-while still large-gradually decline and the government makes a new, big push
Fed Policy Expectations and Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets
May 25, 2014
Many observers expect the Fed's imminent policy tightening cycle to weigh on portfolio flows to emerging markets in coming years. The analysis present
UAE: Set for Sustained Growth
May 22, 2014
The current macroeconomic performance and near-term outlook remain favorable. Nonoil growth will remain slightly above 5% in 2014 and 2015, led by the
Weekly Insight: India Hopes, China Worries
May 22, 2014
Taper-versary: one year on, is a stronger USD in prospect? Turkey eases monetary policy China-could housing crunch the economy? India-BJP win boosts e
Bahrain: Activity Picking Up, But Growth Constraints Remain
May 16, 2014
The economy is recovering and gaining traction after a series of shocks in recent years. Although we expect growth to slow to 4.4% in 2014 as oil prod
Weekly Insight: Weighing the Options
May 15, 2014
Bias still towards risk, but investors looking for reassurance Speculation about ECB stimulus fuels Euro weakness Euro Area GDP disappoints in Q1 as c
Weekly Insight: Another Boost for Risk Appetite
May 8, 2014
Supportive backdrop for both bonds and equities"¦ "¦ although flows to high-yield bond funds come to a halt Manufacturing PMIs signal more divergence
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