Banks in China suffered from rising non-performing loan (NPL) formation in Covid years. Banks are still well-capitalized thanks to the aggressive capital raising in the past years, and business conditions are improving as the economy and loan demand recover.

We are preparing to update our exchange rate fair values in the coming weeks. Markets have been especially focused on our Brazilian Real and Turkish ...

• We expect average oil prices to decline from $100 a barrel in 2022 to $85 in 2023 and $80 in 2024. • The main downside risk to the oil price forecast is weaker than-expected global growth. • Growth accelerated to 7.9% in 2022, driven by a substantial increase in hydrocarbon output and elevated oil prices.

The voluntary carbon markets continue to gain momentum despite financial market volatility in recent months. The proliferation of net zero targets by large corporates remains the major driver of market expansion.

The April 2023 edition of the Global Regulatory Update provides targeted updates on current workstreams and events.

This Global Macro Views summarizes our impressions from the Spring Meetings. The broad consensus is that deposit outflows from US banks after SVB ha...

The headline deficit reported by the official budget is nar-rowly defined and thus misleadingly low. We calculate and present the cash-basis consolidated deficit, which is more than twice as large. The large deficit helps to avoid a fiscal cliff like the one in 2021.

This week’s Digital Finance Developments explores how the digital transformation of the economy is shaping international policymakers’ agendas and creating new opportunities for public-private engagement, particularly within development initiatives.

At our IIF Sustainable Finance and Global Debt & Financial Stability Roundtables last week, key themes included net zero transition finance as well as the impact of higher funding costs for vulnerable sovereign and corporate borrowers.

China’s gigantic official foreign asset is still a black box. This note looks into the changing structures and management of China’s foreign reserves and other foreign currency assets.

Russia in 2022 had a large “excess” current account surplus, … reflected in abundant domestic liquidity and resilient growth. Counterpart to this wa...

Some $120 billion was added to the debt pile of frontier markets in 2022, bringing it to an all-time high of $3.6 trillion.