Kilicdaroglu is expected to win the presidential elections in the second round of votes on May 28, although the margin of error suggests that confidence in such a prediction should only be medium. The next government will face significant challenges, requiring but not necessarily leading to a pivot to orthodox policies.

The April 2023 U.S. Regulatory Update covers recent developments in cyber strategy, bank regulation, sanction implementation, and more.

The March 2023 edition of the Insurance Update provides targeted updates on IIF insurance activities and events.

GDP growth is expected to soften in 2023, weighed by weaker exports and domestic demand. Fiscal consolidation since 2020 helped improve the outlook for Romania’s sovereign credit rating, while spending slippages ahead of the 2024 elections may pose upside risks to the fiscal deficit.

MENAP non-oil countries are facing unprecedented challenges. We expect growth to slow sharply, and the current account and fiscal deficits to remain large.

Portfolio flows to EM stood at $9.4 bn in March. Equity and debt flows were $6.8 bn and $2.6 bn. Chinese equities posted $7.2 bn in inflows.

Markets have been focused on US bank deposit outflows, … fearing that such outflows could translate into weak lending.  The good news is there is li...

This week’s Digital Finance Developments explores the emerging field of regulatory technology (RegTech). We look at how and why financial services firms are adopting technologies to assist with regulatory obligations, and how regulators are using technology for supervision.

CCA countries have successfully managed to avoid any negative spillovers from Russian sanctions. Higher remittances and energy prices led to strong growth. However, risks of secondary sanctions remain, as Western officials begin to clamp down on countries potentially aiding sanction evasion.

The government submitted to Congress a long-awaited pension reform bill. We survey the main independent and official reviews on the proposal, focusing on the fiscal impact. While the reform introduces improvements in coverage, equity and sufficiency, these gains come at a steep fiscal cost.

March's edition of the Digital Finance Download. A monthly update of significant developments in digital finance around the globe.

Many are concerned that China's reopening from the Covid lockdowns will be inflationary for the global economy. We argue that such fear is overblown.

We estimate that Russia’s energy price windfall amounts to $215 bn. This windfall is the “excess” current account surplus from mid-2021, … when ener...

The IIF Sustainable Finance Monitor for Q1 discusses key trends shaping the global sustainable finance agenda (including climate competitiveness and scenario analysis), regulatory, policy, and research developments, and shares updates on the IIF's sustainable finance activities.

Electricity shortages and logistical constraints are expected to weigh on growth. The drag will mainly stem from weakening export growth, while fixed investment and consumer spending should remain robust. Food inflation is proving stubbornly high, the greatest upside risk to inflation.

China's inbound FDI was surprisingly strong in the past two years, despite its economic woes, precarious policies, rising production costs, travel disruptions by Covid, and friend-shoring by the US. China's economy and supply chains are more resilient than many expected.