Emerging markets are playing a key role in shaping the global sustainable finance agenda this year, ahead of COP27 in Egypt and the G20 Summit in Indonesia in November.

Russia’s fiscal accounts continue to benefit from high commodity prices. Debt-to-GDP stands at 17%, and the NWF fund is 8% of GDP in 1H2022. However, ~40% of federal budget revenues come from oil and gas. Revenues will fall due to energy wars and the EU oil embargo in 2023. We expect a federal budget deficit of about 2% in 2022 and 3% in 2023.

We expect oil prices to average $101/b in 2022 and $85/b in 2023. However, the range of uncertainty remains large, including the extent of production cuts in Russia and in major OPEC members, the impact of the G7 oil price cap, and the prospects of nuclear agreement with Iran.

The September 2022 edition of the Global Regulatory Update provides targeted updates on current workstreams and events

After Russia invaded Ukraine, emerging markets were very resilient at first. Rising commodity prices meant the war was a positive terms of trade shoc...

Following four quarters of consecutive decline, the global debt-to-GDP ratio is edging back up, approaching 350% of GDP in Q2 2022. We expect the global debt ratio to reach 352% of GDP by end-2022.

ASEAN-5 is highly dependent on China for exports. The region is also an important indicator of global activity. External demand remained surprisingly robust in 1H2022. However, we expect some deceleration in 2H2022. China’s slowdown remains the key risk for ASEAN-5.

We expect average food prices to peak in 2022 and then decline by 11% in 2023 as supply conditions improve. Base metal prices will decrease by 14% in 2023 weighed down by rising yields and slowing global growth.

Sri Lanka secured a $2.9bn IMF program pending debt restructuring talks. We assess capacity to pay interest on restructured debt in coming years. ...

• This year's PBoC easing has created ample liquidity yet failed to stimulate loan growth. • Total credit growth is also much weaker if government bonds are excluded. • This is largely due to a lack of demand and weak confidence. • Thanks to policy guidance, medium/long-term loans to industrial

Portfolio flows to EM stood at $27.0 bn in August. Equity and debt flows were $21.2 bn and $5.7 bn. Chinese equities posted $1.0 bn inflows ...

Despite lingering concerns over the global economic slowdown, the corporate earnings outlook is holding up relatively well, especially in mature markets. However, there are pockets of weakness…

Costa Rica’s current account deficit remains manageable, and the external funding outlook is favorable. The real exchange rate has depreciated, favoring external adjustment. However, inflation pressure has intensified, and global bond issuance remains a challenge amid political resistance.

The effectiveness of the G7 price cap is being hotly debated. This Global Macro Views summarizes the debate on both sides. Skeptics fear that certai...

China's invincible housing market finally collapsed

Ecuador’s dollar spreads have risen to prohibitive levels since June.  Rollover from China and oil prices will determine the external outlook. We se...