The IMF and World Bank approved Sudan’s eligibility for debt relief under the HIPC Initiative in recognition of the significant reforms implemented by authorities. We expect growth to pick up and fiscal and external imbalances to reduce as the country reintegrates into the international community.

Renewed pandemic containment measures weigh on economic activity in Kenya and Uganda. Low vaccination rates due to supply constraints make a stop-and-start recovery more likely. Benign inflation dynamics have allowed the BoU to continue its accommodative policy stance. However, real interest rates are still attractive and foreign capital has flown into the local market. This has supported the UGS, which continues to appreciate in nominal and real effective terms.

EM fiscal policy shifted expansionary as the covid crisis unfolded. We examine consolidation plans as EMs start to scale back stimulus. Most EMs a...

Agriculture employs over one billion people globally and comprises a large share of GDP in many developing economies…; …and, while representing only 3.5% of global GDP, agriculture is responsible for 12% of global greenhouse gas emissions; Greening agriculture production is key for reaching net zero--while also ensuring food security and physical risk mitigation…; …which will require adopting much more efficient agricultural production and consumption practices.

The September 2021 Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams.

We expect a 50% chance that the new cabinet will carry out the reforms needed to achieve macroeconomic stability and arrest further deterioration, which would lead to an agreement with the IMF and unlock financial support from the international community.

We have been drawing attention to a major conundrum in Brazil, … which is that the rise in commodity prices has boosted the terms of trade, … but ...

LatAm central banks have accelerated monetary policy normalization. We expect Brazil and Andean countries to hike faster than market expectations, with Mexico remaining more dovish amid a negative output gap. Risks are tilted up due to potentially worsening global conditions and higher fiscal risk.

Upside inflation surprises prompted rate hike in most CEEMEA countries. We expect inflation to ease across the region, but high uncertainty remains. In Russia, we now see a higher terminal rate and easing to start later in ’22. The SARB can likely afford to stay on hold longer with only one hike in ‘22. We expect gradual cuts in Turkey through 2022 in line with market pricing. Despite above-target inflation, the Ukrainian NBU will likely stay on hold.

Some $4.8 trillion was added to the global debt mountain in Q2 2021, bringing it to an all-time high of $296 trillion. Better news: the global debt/GDP ratio declined significantly in Q2 2021, though this follows a large spike in 2020.

Colombia’s current account deficit rose above 5% in 21H1, … driven by increasing imports and continued services deficits. Preliminary data suggest...

We have examined government bond yields for their information content. Recent Global Macro Views focused on the thorny issue of “fiscal space,” … ...

Portfolio flows to EM stood at $4.3 bn in August. Equity and debt flows were $0.8 bn and $3.5 bn. China equity posted $3.8 bn in inflows.

ASEAN-5 countries experienced strong, export-driven growth in 2021H1. However, the COVID Delta variant is already affecting business sentiment. With vaccination rates still low, we expect growth to slow markedly in H2. Lockdowns in the ASEAN-5 are also beginning to affect global value chains. We expect monetary and fiscal policies to remain supportive into next year.

TBD