The 2021Q2 output contraction of 0.8% q/q (sa) surprised to the downside. As a result, we have revised our growth forecast for 2021 from 5.5% to 2.7%. We believe the poor Q2 reading is partially caused by statistical idiosyncrasies. A revision with the September release of GDP details is possible, but not likely. Over the medium term, we expect growth of 3.5-4.0% as reform efforts slow.