President-elect Trump has outlined several key economic policies he wants to pursue in his second term, with particular emphasis on ramping up U.S. ta...

Portfolio flows to EM stood at $1.9 bn in October. Equity and debt flows were -$25.5 bn and $27.4 bn. Chinese equities posted $9.0 bn in outflows. ...

We see the Bank of Korea delaying the next rate cut to 2025Q1 and delivering a terminal policy rate of 2.25% by 2025Q3. Our analysis finds that structural forces have driven Korea's neutral rate to below the U.S. thus keeping the policy rate and 10y bond yield below the U.S. over the economic cycle.

A weaker $CNY under a Trump 2.0 presidency would have spillover effects on other EM-Asia currencies. Our analysis indicates that MYR and KRW are more sensitive to $CNY movements, while VND and TWD may be able to mitigate some negative impact as beneficiaries of supply chain diversification.

The GCC region is forecasted to remain resilient amidst geopolitical uncertainty. Under our baseline scenario, oil prices will decline to $70/b in 2025. However, strong fundamentals, ample financial sources, and low debt will allow the region to cope well with this adverse external environment.

The November 2024 edition of the Global Regulatory Update provides targeted updates on current workstreams and events.

There is a growing gap between the goods trade surplus reported by Customs and BoP data, raising doubts about the authenticity of China’s trade and GDP data. We find that the growing “in China for China” production by foreign firms is likely the main driver of this widening gap.

This week’s Digital Finance Developments discusses preparations by industry and policymakers for the quantum age, including the current focus on mitigating cyber risks, and their exploration of potential advantages brought by quantum deployment. We also note critical policymaking venues to watch.

Peru’s fiscal stance became expansionary in response to the recession last year. The current fiscal plan targets a 1% of GDP deficit by 2028 and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 30% by 2035. Weak revenue and spending pressures raise the risk of missing the target again this year.

This report examines why US bond yields are rising despite Fed rate cuts, highlighting increased productivity lifting the neutral real rate, fiscal dynamics raising breakeven inflation and the term premium, and stronger economic data shifting up expectations for the December 2025 Fed Funds rate.

Trump’s re-election boosts short-term U.S. equities but raises debt and inflation concerns. Expected tax cuts and spending increases could push long-...

IIF Briefing Note on COP16: Enabling Finance for Nature

Total debt in frontier markets increased by over $45 billion in H1 2024, reaching a new record high of $3.7 trillion. At 102% of GDP, total debt in frontier markets stands more than 7 percentage points above pre-COVID levels.

A high-level summary of regulatory and policy discussions at the 2024 IIF Annual Membership Meetings (AMM).

Edition of the Digital Finance Download covering October 2024. A monthly update of significant developments in digital finance around the globe.

Geopolitical tensions and central bank policy pivots dominated the discussion, shaping views on the global outlook. While the economic expansion appe...