Uzbekistan coped well with the pandemic. Growth will remain around 6% in 2022, inflation is declining, the fiscal deficit is projected to narrow gradually, and the public debt will remain modest. 

Once a key driver of China's economic growth, real estate is now seen by many as a cancer of the economy. Real estate and construction together account for 14.5% of China's GDP and 20% of employment. This note examines the role of real estate, particularly housing, in China's economy. 

The recent Lira depreciation is much more pronounced than in 2018. Importantly, the CBRT’s monetary policy response has been different. Rate cuts contributed to depreciation, raising financial stability concerns. FX passthrough will affect rising inflation and inflation expectations. Lira returns above inflation should help ease inflationary pressures.

Chile's current account deficit is wide despite high copper prices.

The December 2021 Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams.

The economy is stabilizing, with fiscal adjustment in line with IMF program targets. Rapid vaccination rollout and subsequent reopening have contributed to ongoing recovery, and EMBIG spreads have dropped sharply. Tough political negotiations are key to move forward with the ambitious reform agenda. 

External financing stress should be moderate in the coming months. Support by the IMF and EU, and the 2021 SDR allocation play a role. As do positive terms of trade and successful placement of Eurobonds. The IMF program’s extension to mid-2022 was of critical importance. Key risks are de-anchored inflation expectations and reform reversal. Furthermore, the conflict in Eastern Ukraine could escalate further.

High oil prices since end-2020 are largely driven by pervasive supply shortages from the lack of adequate investment. Current futures contracts point to Brent average oil prices of $73/bbl and $69/bbl in 2022 and 2023, respectively. 

Nearly 20 countries are pursuing hydrogen strategies to help curb emissions, with another 20+ poised to follow suit; Current hydrogen production processes are carbon-intensive, creating 900Mt of CO2 emissions/year—2.5% of all emissions; “Green” hydrogen produced with zero emissions can help decarbonize heavy industry, transportation, and power generation; High (but declining) costs of electrolyser equipment and renewable energy are the chief obstacles for scaling green hydrogen.

Favorable commodity price dynamics will drive up current account surpluses. Russia will also be among only a few countries without fiscal deficits in 2022. Inflation remains the key concern and we expect the CBR to continue hiking. Geopolitics continue to play a major role with new U.S. sanctions a possibility. However, Russia appears well-prepared to withstand their potential impact.

Central banks project that the transition to net-zero emissions will be inflationary, especially over the course of the next decade; “Greenflation” could be even higher, as the need to rapidly scale up infrastructure investment may boost commodity prices; Climate hazards put upward pressure on food prices, while greening agriculture may trigger unfavorable food price dynamics; Projected global oil capex shortfall of $600bn to 2030: underinvestment could mean supply-demand imbalance, higher prices; Persistently insufficient green R&D means that non-carbon energy alternatives will remain expensive as uptake increases.