Turkey’s current account balance will shift to a sizable deficit in 2020. Meanwhile, non-residents remain reluctant to finance the external gap. Residents’ strong FX demand adds to depreciation pressure on the Lira. Falling reserves constrain the CBRT’s ability to provide further stimulus.

The first in a series of IIF briefing notes on data ethics, this note outlines useful case studies and practical strategies and techniques that financial services firms can implement to help ensure the ethical use of data in a rapidly digitizing world. 

With only 10 years to go, emerging markets and low-income countries (LICs) are far off their 2030 SDG targets; Between 2011 and 2019, median public debt in LICs rose from 30% of GDP to 47%, and is expected to reach 54% in 2020.

Investors are concerned about the possibility of additional sanctions on Russia. German officials have threatened action against Nord Stream 2 in recent weeks. This would have important geopolitical, but likely limited economic, implications. Additional sanctions by the U.S. could depend on the 2020 presidential election. However, the Russian economy is substantially less vulnerable compared to 2014.

The September 2020 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams. 
 

Commodity prices remain subject to heightened levels of uncertainty as reopening efforts continue to evolve. We expect Brent oil prices to remain steady in 2020-2021 and natural gas prices to increase modestly. Base metals could balance in 2021, limiting further increases in prices. 

Early September tech selloff has dented this year’s outperformance of ESG indices, which tend to be tech-heavy; However, appetite for ESG ETFs remains strong, with ytd flows nearing $140bn (vs just $25bn over the same period in 2019)

The August/September edition of the Insurance Update provides targeted updates on IIF insurance activities and events, and highlights relevant IIF publications or related regulatory developments in other fields. 

This IIF member briefing note identifies key issues in a number of the current and emerging proposals, on a key topic that will merit ongoing monitoring.

Widening fiscal deficits could create financing challenges going forward. As the economy recovers, domestic investors may provide less funding. If fiscal consolidation is not realized, “prescribed assets" are one option. South Africa could also approach the IMF for a Stand-by-Arrangement.