We assess Ghana’s external financing risk as low compared to regional peers. Eurobond issuance and multilateral support help offset impact of COVID-19. As a result, we estimate only moderate reserve losses of $800 mn in 2020. External debt amortization appears manageable this year and over 2021-22. Outflows could be triggered if deficits grow and/or are financed by the BOG.
Shocked by COVID-19 and the plunge in oil prices, the six GCC states will experience their worst recession in history. However, most GCC public sectors and banks are well positioned to absorb the shocks due to their large buffers and aggressive fiscal adjustments.
With COVID-19 clouding corporate revenue and earnings prospects, highly-leveraged firms will struggle with debt service;
Informed by our working group discussions, this letter is meant to frame the accompanying Terms of Reference for private sector consideration of borrower requests within the DSSI.
The Terms of Reference are a toolkit for DSSI-eligible sovereign borrowers that request forbearance from their private creditors. This new framework offers a flexible template for in-scope borrowers and their private creditors to advance conversations and enable voluntary debt service suspension, on terms in line with official bilateral creditors.
Non-resident portfolio outflows from EM have been large, amounting to a five standard deviation shock in March and April.
We now expect an even deeper output contraction of 5.7% in the CEEMEA region. Effects of the COVID-19 shock are increasingly visible in the data for March-April. We downgrade growth in South Africa, the Czech Republic, Ukraine, and Russia. The fall in activity prompted authorities to implement fiscal stimulus measures. Together with cyclical revenue weakness, additional spending will widen deficits. CEEMEA central banks cut rates and some began government bond purchases.
The IIF submitted a comment letter to the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) Exposure Draft
We downgraded global and LatAm growth markedly in April, but since then activity has contracted even faster than expected.
Capital inflows to the MENA region will remain high despite the global backdrop. We expect the plunge in oil prices and widening fiscal deficits will lead to a decline in private non-resident capital flows to oil importers, but will be partly offset by higher official flows.
The May 2020 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams.
This week featured Maha Eltobgy, Head of Shaping the Future of Investing, World Economic Forum, speaking with Sonja Gibbs, Managing Director and Head of Sustainable Finance, Global Policy Initiatives, IIF.
Russia’s assets are stabilizing, and investors are showing renewed interest. The “Fortress Russia” strategy has reduced macroeconomic vulnerabilities. We expect both the fiscal and monetary policy responses to remain modest. As the economy is set to reopen, COVID-19 infections continue to spread.
John Collins of FS Vector joins FRT to discuss the Libra White Paper 2.0 and key updates in the initiative, against the backdrop of various developments with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
Zambia’s external financing picture will continue to deteriorate in 2020. Sharply lower commodity prices will be a drag on the current account. At the same time, external debt repayments are set to increase markedly. As a result, already low foreign reserves are likely to fall even further. Additional external support of $0.5-1.0 bn would likely stabilize reserves.
With pandemic response a key driver, global debt is set to hit $325 trillion by 2025—up sharply from $255 trillion in 2019; U.S. general government debt is on track to exceed 120% of GDP this year, up from 102% in 2019; China’s total debt hit 317% of GDP in Q1 2020, up from 300% in Q4 2019—the largest quarterly increase on record; China is now the world’s largest bilateral lender to G20 DSSI-countries, holding some 25% of their external debt
China’s rising CPI, elevated debt, and deteriorating external positions prevented strong credit stimulus in 2019. Policy impulses came mainly in the form of fiscal spending in 2018 and tax cuts in 2019. Stimulus in 2020 requires better coordination among fiscal, monetary and credit policies.