Merits of further monetary policy easing under the microscope; Rising populism—whether due to economic or socio-cultural factors—is the primary driver of global policy uncertainty; Limited scope for monetary policy to address declining business confidence, as social unrest is often a root cause; Frontier market debt tops 115% of GDP in Q2 2019—up by 20 percentage points over the past decade.  The exceptions thus stand out—including Kazakhstan which has both low valuations and declining debt levels.

Frontier market debt hit $3.2 trillion in Q2 2019, up by over $630 billion since Q2 2016.  While this marks the slowest quarterly growth in debt since 2015, it also puts total frontier debt/GDP at a record high of over 115%. We have added Republic of Congo, Gambia, and Mozambique to our frontier market debt monitor database. 

Growth in the Euro area slowed considerably in 2018 and 2019H1. CEE countries are highly integrated into European value chains. We already see evidence of a slowdown in industrial production. However, domestic demand continues to support robust growth. In case of further shocks, policy space is not universally available.

Activity in China slowed markedly in the first half of 2018, but softened just marginally when trade tensions picked up. Policy support to credit-intensive sectors largely offset tariffs, but investment in high value-added tradable sectors suffered. Scope for more policy support remains if growth falls further.

Topics addressed:
*IIF Response to IAIS Big Data Analytics Draft Issues Paper
*IIF Insurance Regulatory Committee Meeting
*IIF Cyber Risk Roundtable 
*December 6 IIF Insurance Dialogue, London, UK 
*IIF LIBOR Transition Roundtable 

Nationwide protests continue, triggered by economic strain and deep-rooted dissatisfaction with the sectarian-based leaders. Permanent fiscal measures and deeper structural reforms are needed to achieve macroeconomic stability and raise growth.

ESG and sustainable finance top the policy agenda in last week’s IMF/World Bank (and IIF) meetings in Washington D.C.; Global growth set to decline to the slowest pace since the financial crisis; Strong start to U.S. Q3 earnings season, but rising corporate borrowing has been funding risk-taking, record payouts ; Carbon pricing initiatives are spreading but remain woefully insufficient to keep global warming to 2◦C

Investors finished the IMF/WB meetings on a less negative note. Concerns remain, but fewer worried about the risk of a recession. Monetary easing and a US-China trade deal would be supportive. Barring surprises from the Dollar, modest flows to EM are likely. The IMF's integrated policy framework remains a key topic for EM.

We expect a pickup in portfolio flows to emerging markets in 2020. 2019 saw a healthy recovery so far, despite slowing global growth. Central banks’ pivot towards monetary easing supports debt flows. Local markets appear to have attracted large inflows in 2019H1. This was true for established EMs as well as some frontier markets.

We expect growth in the MENA region to slow to 1.4% in 2019 from 1.8% in 2018, dragged down by the deep recession in Iran and the compliance with the OPEC + deal. This aggregate picture, however, hides considerable heterogeneity in economic paths across the region.