Despite unprecedented levels of macro and policy uncertainty—exacerbated by tariffs and trade tensions—global risk sentiment has deteriorated only modestly relative to past crises; strong private sector balance sheets are helping.

Demand dynamics will drive the oil price outlook. A well-supplied market paired with significantly weakened demand —driven by tariffs and recession concerns—will keep oil prices subdued. We forecast Brent crude averaging $64/b in 2025 and $60/b in 2026.

We investigate the key drivers of rising 10y nominal Treasury yields following the April 2 tariff announcement. High real yields are an important driver, and unlike in previous periods of market stress, this time break-even inflation rates are not providing an offset downward push to nominal yields.

Progress on structural reforms has improved the medium-term growth outlook. Lower inflation and policy rates are also supportive of better growth outcomes, but market uncertainty around the stability of the unity government has grown after a major coalition partner (DA) voted against the Budget.

The IIF Q1 2025 U.S. Regulatory Update covers federal agency announcements, Congressional news, and senior regulatory appointments.

Portfolio flows to EM stood at –17.1 bn in March Equity and debt flows were –12.4 bn and –4.8 bn. China drove most of the retrenchment, while EM ex-...

As support for ambitious climate policy falters and corporate climate commitments are called into question, the net zero transition is at serious risk of stalling—prompting a fresh look at physical climate risks and calls for a major scale-up in adaptation finance.

This edition of Global Macro Views explores the key factors behind the recent outperformance of European stocks relative to their U.S. counterparts, focusing on valuation dynamics, earnings trends, and macroeconomic divergence.

The external financing needs will remain contained, and the debt-service-to-exports ratio will decline further supported by narrower CA deficits and reduced amortization.

On April 3 the Chinese authorities added a weaker USDCNY exchange to its arsenal of responses to US tariffs. This shift in PBOC policy should push Asia currencies weaker in the coming weeks. Most Asia currencies have a high (and positive) correlation with movements in USDCNY.

This week’s Digital Finance Developments investigates the use of special economic zones to promote fintech development and how individual regions are designing policy frameworks to establish fintech leadership.

Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Thailand have the largest export exposure to the US market. Significant space exists for monetary easing to help mitigate the negative impact of US tariffs on growth. FX weakness could, however, constrain policy easing unless commodity price declines are significant.

• China’s resilient export growth last year was driven by both weak demands at home and strong demand from abroad. • For example, the strong steel exports were pushed by domestic supply while global demands pulled copper exports. • The links between export growth, capacity utilization, and overcap