We present our EM current account forecasts for next year. Wide deficits will continue in Turkey, Hungary, and Philippines. In a group of countries ...

We update our high-frequency tracking of EM trade balances, … and discuss broader BoP developments for selected countries. Some like Brazil c...

India’s trade deficit in H1 was the widest since the taper tantrum. Imports of deeply discounted Russian oil have risen sharply, … ...

We track EM trade balances as a proxy for current accounts. Imports increased well past pre-covid levels everywhere, … but strong exports p...

Core inflation momentum is high in emerging markets, … but output is significantly below trend in many countries, … making demand an...

Colombia ran the widest current account deficit in EM last year, … and imports remained extraordinarily strong in January-February. High co...

Chile’s economy overheated due to expansionary fiscal policy. Both fiscal and monetary policies are turning contractionary, … Budgete...

Trade deficits in several EMs are below pre-pandemic levels, … even though imports more than fully recovered in late 2021. We expect manage...

The covid recession was deep in India, as was the impact of delta. This is not unique to India but initial conditions in early 2020 were, … ...