Key Issues

Lubomir Mitov on CCTV America: Ukraine's economy is on brink of collapse

In an interview with CCTV America, IIF Chief Economist for Emerging Europe Lubomir Mitov discusses Ukraine’s economic outlook.

Tim Adams OpEd: ‘Too big to fail’ dilemma is solved

September 18, 2014 — In an opinion piece featured in the Australian Financial Review ahead of the G20 Financial Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Cairns, IIF President and CEO Tim Adams addresses how steps have been taken to put in place resolution regimes to ensure that a financial institution can fail without disruption to the financial system. Adams highlights how Financial Stability Board’s Key Attributed of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions set out a global model that most jurisdictions have turned into law. “We now have the tools to handle a failed bank—without cost to taxpayers…” Adams wrote.

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IIF Paper: “Too Big To Fail” Coming to an End

September 18, 2014 — The Institute of International Finance today released a paper arguing that, in the relatively near future, regulators and the industry will be able to say without reservation that no financial institution is “too big to fail.”

“The global financial system is safer and sounder than it was six years ago,” said Tim Adams, president and CEO of the IIF. “In 2008, there was no plan for what to do if a big bank failed. Today, we have agreed international principles. Legislatures have enacted these principles into law. Detailed roadmaps have been prepared to apply the new laws on a bank by bank basis, and lines of communication have been established among authorities to ensure a global bank can be resolved cross-border.”

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IIF Concerned that Global Growth Engines are Sputtering

September 15, 2014 — The Institute of International Finance released its latest assessment of the global economy, raising concerns that growth momentum has been faltering. The IIF noted that global growth picked up only marginally in the second quarter as stronger U.S. and Chinese growth were largely offset by disappointments elsewhere. Slower momentum in mature economies outside the U.S., notably the Euro Area, is weighing on global trade and exacerbating home-made problems in many emerging markets.

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Emerging Market Growth Picks Up Pace in Q3


September 9, 2014 — Emerging market GDP growth is on track to grow at a 3.9 percent pace in 2014Q3, slightly higher than the 3.5 percent seen in 2014H1 according to the August reading of the Institute of International Finance’s new Emerging Market Coincident Indicator (EMCI).

“Growth in emerging markets is gradually recovering from a dismal first half performance,” said Charles Collyns, chief economist at the IIF. “However, the pace of growth is still modest, in part reflecting drag from some mature economies, notably the Euro Area, but also home-grown difficulties including political uncertainty in a number of emerging markets.”

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IIF Participated in the Discussions on the ICMA Model Aggregated CACs for Sovereign Bonds

September 5, 2014 — Senior IIF staff have participated over the past two years in the broad-based discussions on the formulation of a model aggregated Collective Action Clauses for sovereign bonds by the International Capital Market Association (ICMA), whose members include over 400 major banks, asset managers and investors, and sovereign debt issuers. Other participants in these discussions included IMF and U.S. Treasury officials, other officials from emerging markets, market participants and practitioners, and academics. The model aggregated CACs are intended to complement the existing CACs for restructuring individual series of sovereign bonds and thus strengthen the effectiveness of the prevailing contractual approach to sovereign debt restructuring in requiring high creditor participation in debt restructurings whilst reducing materially the potential incidence of holdout creditors disrupting a restructuring. The discussions culminated in an agreed framework, released publicly on Friday, August 29, 2014, which can be used by sovereign debtors in future new bond issuance.

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New IIF U.S. Market Risk Index Sends Warning Signal

September 4, 2014 — Investors should be more cautious as market uncertainty rises in anticipation of the Fed’s first rate hike next year, according to a new index developed by the Institute of International Finance.

“In light of the pending Fed exit from quantitative easing and the associated potential market risks we are offering a simple, intuitive gauge that we think is a helpful alternative to the VIX,” said Hung Tran, executive managing director at the IIF. “Currently, the IIF U.S. Market Risk Index reflects a degree of stress building up: equities continue to gain over bonds, while the dollar index has had a decisive move higher since early July. Hence while volatility-based risk measures still show a green light, our new index suggests more caution may be warranted.”

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September 2014 Global Regulatory UpdateMember only content

September 4, 2014 — This month’s IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams in regulatory capital, liquidity, recovery and resolution, data requirements, disclosure, insurance, and upcoming events.

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September 2014 Capital Markets Monitor and Teleconference

Pricing for Deflation?

September 3, 2014 — As the market frame of reference continues to develop, from the Fed “taper tantrum” in May 2013 to Jackson Hole in August 2014, the time remaining before the end of QE3 continues to get shorter—and the prospect of Fed monetary policy tightening clearer.

Nonetheless, 10yr U.S. Treasury yields are down over 65 basis points this year—unwinding more than a third of the taper shock—while yields on other key government bonds continue to decline to record or near-record lows. The only rational explanation for this is that market participants are pricing in the potential for secular stagnation in the major developed economies and the risk of outright deflation in the Euro Area in particular.

Heightened geopolitical tension adds more headwind to growth prospects. In such an environment, monetary accommodation would remain in place for longer—and be accelerated in the case of the ECB— while inflation would be lower. Either or both of these eventualities would justify such low government yields.

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Events

IIF Teleconference on UkraineMember only content

September 23, 2014

Lubomir Mitov, IIF Chief Economist for Emerging Europe, and Ondrej Schneider, IIF Senior Economist, provide a briefing on their insights into the outlook, drawing on Mr. Mitov’s participation in the Lviv Financial Forum held September 18-19, attended by the central bank governor, finance minister and other officials. They also discuss the impacts of recent developments in Ukraine on the Emerging Europe region. The recording of this call is now available.

IIF Teleconference on the BalkansMember only content

September 24, 2014

Following recent travels to Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and Croatia, IIF Chief Economist for Emerging Europe Mr. Lubomir Mitov and IIF economists Mr. Jared Bebee and Mr. Ugras Ulku summarize the findings of their missions and provide a regional outlook. The call will take place at 9:00 AM EDT.

2014 IIF Annual Membership Meeting

October 10-11, 2014

Washington, D.C.

The 2014 IIF Annual Membership Meeting will be held from Friday, October 10 through Saturday, October 11 at Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington, D.C.

IIF MENA Regional Economic Forum

September 29-30, 2014

Manama, Bahrain

Hosted by Gulf International Bank, the Forum will address the challenges of economic diversification and meaningful job creation in the oil-producing economies, prospects for political stability and sustainable economic growth in the transition (“Arab Spring”) countries, global energy markets and the future role of the MENA oil producers in global energy supplies, and prospects for Arab economic cooperation and private sector intra-regional capital flows in the wake of the “Arab Spring.”

2014 IIF Executive Program on Private Banking and Wealth Management - Evolving Wealth Transformation in Dynamic Growth Markets

October 15-17, 2014

Singapore

Offered in cooperation with UBS, this three-day program will focus on strategic considerations for evolving wealth transformation addressing how industry leaders are approaching the unprecedented transformation affecting current business practices, particularly with growing wealth in emerging markets and rapidly increasing flow of funds to Asia. This program is designed to be both practical and interactive with structured group discussions allowing participants and expert speakers to freely share insights.



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